Precisely when and to what extent the decreased capacity will lead to delays is impossible to calculate in advance. In addition, simulations of traffic involve a certain amount of uncertainty. But the calculations generally indicate that in the busiest sectors and at the busiest times, there is a significant risk of delays of up to an hour. Simulations of what will happen when the new air traffic control system goes into operation have been run on behalf of Naviair at the CFMU – Central Flow Management Unit – in Brussels. The simulations are based on actual traffic between January and March 2007 with a 3% increase.

“It gives us a very good picture of what can happen and where there will be a requirement to be innovative and have close cooperation with the airlines in order to avoid many long delays,” says Jesper Skou, Naviair's Manager for Operations, Procedures. “But it naturally does not say anything specific about what is going to happen on a particular Thursday in January 2008. The earliest we can say anything about that is the day before when we know what the actual traffic will be in detail.”

Naviair is already cooperating with the airlines to set up the actual traffic so that the risk of delays is minimized as much as possible.

PR & Communications, 20 November 2007